DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260952
SWOD48
SPC AC 260951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE ERN GULF COAST STATES AND IN FL BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. ON SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE
MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SHARPLY FROM HERE WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GFS
MOVING THE SYSTEM EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS POINT AM
FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY WHICH WOULD MAKE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM MONDAY/DAY 6 INTO
TUESDAY/DAY 7. FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW
FOR THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 12/26/2012

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