DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280951
SWOD48
SPC AC 280950

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2012

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
MODELS DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE SRN PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE SERN THIRD OF TX DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF TX AND OK MONDAY WITH THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN GULF COAST
STATES ON TUESDAY/DAY 5. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE MODELS DEVELOP
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVE
THIS SYSTEM EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY/DAY 7...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
IN THE GULF COAST STATES.

ATTM...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT CONCERNING MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE
ECMWF BEING MORE CONSERVATIVE. DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...PREDICTABILITY CONCERNING AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW.

..BROYLES.. 12/28/2012

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