DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290944
SWOD48
SPC AC 290944

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES. THE MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM
EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS REDEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
SWRN STATES WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT IN TO THE GREAT PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
MOVING EWD INTO FL ON THURSDAY/DAY 6. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE EXACT TIMING ALSO REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE MID-WEEK
TIMEFRAME...PREDICTABILITY CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW.

..BROYLES.. 12/29/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.