DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040949
SWOD48
SPC AC 040948

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2012

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /SUN.
12-9/...BUT THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS PRIOR. OVERALL...IT REMAINS
CLEAR BASED ON MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THAT THE MEDIUM-RANGE PATTERN
IN GENERAL IS A LOW-PREDICTABILITY SCENARIO...AND THUS ANY ATTEMPT
AT A CONVECTIVE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY TENUOUS WITH TIME
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD /I.E. DAYS 4-6/...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A
FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM THE GENERAL OH VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION
SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
PARTS OF TX/OK AND THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AREA AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT. IN
ADDITION...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE
REGION...LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS WHAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LOW-END/ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT BEST...NO
THREAT AREAS /IMPLYING 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY/ WILL BE INTRODUCED
THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 12/04/2012

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