DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060955
SWOD48
SPC AC 060955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST THU DEC 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RUNS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /TUE. 12-11/...MAINTAINING A LARGE LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...A
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO DIG SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 /SUN.
DEC. 9/...AND THEN CONTINUE NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 5 /MON. 12-10/.

AS THIS SHORT-WAVE FEATURE PROGRESSES IN A CYCLONIC ARC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN STATES...AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH DAY 4...AND THEN
CONTINUE ON EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD BY THE END OF DAY 5.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT...AND AVAILABILITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD IN
ADVANCE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- IS EVIDENT. HOWEVER...WITH LAPSE RATES
IN THE WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN WEAK...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOCAL/ISOLATED DUE TO THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS.
THUS...INCLUSION OF A THREAT AREA SUGGESTING A MORE
WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL EVENT APPEARS UNWARRANTED ATTM.

..GOSS.. 12/06/2012

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