DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 071000
SWOD48
SPC AC 071000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI DEC 07 2012

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST STATES MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT...AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE
MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...ANY SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS OR TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK. WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT
APPEARS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA.

THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT INTERACTION BETWEEN A BELT
OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER
EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

..KERR.. 12/07/2012

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