DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080956
SWOD48
SPC AC 080955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST SAT DEC 08 2012

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER IMPULSE
WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES...CURVING AROUND AN EASTERN PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE INTO LINGERING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER NORTH
AMERICA...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE DIGS TOWARD
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...GUIDANCE INDICATES INTERACTION WITH A BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS INITIAL IMPULSE COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT FRIDAY/ SATURDAY. AND MOISTURE
RETURN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF STATES.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN FAR TOO LARGE TO ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN
AND DELINEATE THE RISK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 12/08/2012

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