MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2155

ACUS11 KWNS 142012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142012
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL NM...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...OK
PANHANDLE...PARTS OF WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142012Z - 142145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AREAS FROM WRN OK AND THE OK PANHANDLE SWWD INTO E-CNTRL
NM ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SVR WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WILL LIE
FROM NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMPRISED
OF TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER AZ/NM...WITH THE ERN-MOST FEATURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD/NEWD FROM CNTRL NM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ACCOMPANYING STRONG DCVA/MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCES INTO A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE
PER MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISE-FALL
COUPLET ACROSS THE FRONT /FALLS OVER 2 MB PER 2 HOURS LEADING THE
FRONT AND RISES OVER 4 MB PER 2 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT/ ARE
INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE FLOW AND
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM.

BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS E-CNTRL NM BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
ADJACENT W TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE MEAGER DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY...VWP DATA FROM CANNON AIR FORCE BASE DEPICT OVER 50
KT OF FLOW AOA 1 KM AGL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
CORE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED BOWING
STRUCTURES. ALSO...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AT LEAST
MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THOUGH THE THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER BUOYANCY. STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE
OK AND ERN TX PANHANDLES...AS WELL AS WRN OK BY MID-EVENING...THOUGH
A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK NEAR/NE OF A WEAKLY DEFINED WARM FRONT MAY
FURTHER LIMIT BUOYANCY AND THE SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/GOSS/CORFIDI.. 12/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36619977 35089957 33600086 33070212 33050306 33460364
34470372 36580250 36940080 36619977

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