MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2161

ACUS11 KWNS 161554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161554
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW/CENTRAL LA...SW/CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682...

VALID 161554Z - 161730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. THE WIND THREAT MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO SW/CENTRAL MS BY MIDDAY
AS THE LOW LEVELS WARM/MOISTEN.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ON WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
CELLS MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ALONG THE LINE. THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ AHEAD OF THE STORMS FROM SE
TX INTO LA WILL SUPPORT REGENERATION OF STORMS ALONG THE COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS/MOISTENS...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
DEVELOPS ENEWD FROM TX TOWARD LA/MS. THE OVERALL SETUP STILL
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARY EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY S OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND LARGELY LINE-PARALLEL
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO FORM S
OF THE BAND MAY POSE A MARGINAL TORNADO RISK.

..THOMPSON/CORFIDI.. 12/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON 29169441 28369663 28549724 28749726 29209642 29629540
30279418 30879305 31419206 31929144 32239102 32459046
32888935 32638902 32048910 31219023 30339200 29169441

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