ACUS11 KWNS 251156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251156
LAZ000-TXZ000-251330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX...WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...
VALID 251156Z - 251330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED THRU 15Z ACROSS
THE WW AREA WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE
SHORTWAVE OVER W TX HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX SINCE 09Z. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FARTHER EAST WITH TIME ACROSS WW 691. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
MUCAPES OF 1000 TO LOCALLY 2000 J/KG OVER THE WW AREA ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL TSTMS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WW VALID
TIME...AND LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF THE WW TO THE N AND NW MAY BE
NEEDED AS THIS DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE.
..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30089199 30049287 30049485 30089629 30119697 30489781
31469817 32009798 32369703 32619555 32369410 32119290
31279167 30399166 30089199
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