MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2229

ACUS11 KWNS 261121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261120
NCZ000-SCZ000-261245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NERN SC AND EXTREME SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261120Z - 261245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS OFFSHORE S OF THE SRN NC COAST WERE SHOWING
OCCASIONAL SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION/TRANSIENT ROTATION WHILE MOVING NWD
WITHIN A WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THESE TSTMS MAY EXHIBIT ORGANIZATION
WHILE APCHG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC/SC COASTS WERE
MOVG NWD AND INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST
SOUTH OF ILM TO NEAR MYR AND OGB. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM-FRONTAL ZONE IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LOCAL INCREASE
IN 0-1 KM SRH TO OVER 500 M2/S2 AS SAMPLED BY THE KILM AND KLTX
VWPS. TSTMS WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAVE SHOWN OCCASIONAL
SIGNS OF ROTATION AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THESE STORMS APCH THE COAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO AROUND 100 J/KG
INLAND. AS A RESULT...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL
ROTATION WHILE APCHG THE COAST BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NWD MOVEMENT
ONSHORE. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NWD...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY INCREASE FARTHER
INLAND. WHILE A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32248001 32998021 33797962 34237892 34537761 34487742
34117733 33537789 32787901 32248001

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