ACUS11 KWNS 281231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281231
LAZ000-TXZ000-281400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX...FAR SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281231Z - 281400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL AND SPATIALLY LIMITED THREAT FOR A TORNADO
EXISTS THIS MORNING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER.
DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1007 MB CYCLONE JUST NW
OF BPT WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING E/SEWD NEAR THE LA COAST.
WEAK/TRANSIENT AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION HAVE BEEN NOTED IN
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS...SUPPORTED BY 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT
PER INTERPOLATED VWP DATA/12Z LCH RAOB. MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE NEEDED PER MODIFIED 12Z LCH RAOB TO ELICIT EVEN MODEST
MLCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF POOR TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD LARGELY DETER TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM BEING
REALIZED...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 12/28/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 30409438 30509394 30329346 30109308 29709300 29669376
29549451 30409438
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