ACUS01 KWNS 011224
SWODY1
SPC AC 011222
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CST TUE JAN 01 2013
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
THE BASE OF CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER
OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL OTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WILL DROP SWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
CANADA...REINFORCING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE
NATION. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL
SPREAD NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SC SWWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOIST ASCENT NEAR
AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN LA INTO EXTREME SW MS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. FURTHER TO THE NE TOWARD CNTRL MS...A LIGHTNING
STRIKE MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LESS THAN 200 J/KG
EXISTS. HOWEVER...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER
AND LITTLE FORCING THROUGH MIXED-PHASE LAYER WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN
10 PERCENT THUNDER PROBABILITIES.
..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 01/01/2013
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