DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170553
SWODY1
SPC AC 170551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING/INITIALLY SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS TO THE EAST OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE.
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AS IT SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT.

...CAROLINAS...
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF GA/SC IN
VICINITY OF A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHILE AN INFLUX OF LOWER
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. EVEN WHILE SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY OCCUR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN GA AND
COASTAL/PIEDMONT SC...RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIST ATOP THE MODESTLY MOIST/WEAKLY BUOYANT WARM
SECTOR. THIS SHOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT UPDRAFT DEPTH/VIGOR FOR
NEAR-SURFACE BASED PARCELS. EVEN SO...LOW-TOPPED LINEAR BANDS OF
CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT CHARGE SEPARATION MAY NOT OCCUR FOR
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. IN SPITE OF AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A
VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE...ONLY A RELATIVELY MODEST
PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS EXISTS...WITH SEVERE TSTMS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT/WEAK OVERALL BUOYANCY.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR IN VICINITY
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/UPSTATE CAROLINAS. HERE...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE BRUNT OF FORCING/COOLING ALOFT AND UPPER JET EXIT
REGION...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY/POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION MAY EXIST FOR A LOW PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSTMS.

..GUYER/ROGERS.. 01/17/2013

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