DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 052013
SWODY1
SPC AC 052011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2013

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 01/05/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0948 AM CST SAT JAN 05 2013/

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING OVER THE OH
VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE UPPER AND MID
MS VALLEYS. FARTHER W...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN
PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW WHILE MOVING ONTO THE CA
COAST TONIGHT.

12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BASED ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION EXTENDING UPWARD INTO THE
900-800-MB LAYER. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CNTRL U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD/NEWD AWAY FROM
THE AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY TODAY. AS SUCH...THE GENERAL TSTM AREA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM S TX AND THE TX COASTAL PLAINS.

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