DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221932
SWODY1
SPC AC 221930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2013

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE...NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 01/22/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /NEAR -30 C AT 700 MB/ RESIDE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING BENEATH A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW POSITIONED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS...PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DUE TO VERY
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES/LACK OF SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER CONTENT
IN THE CLOUD LAYER.

FARTHER S...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE E ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TODAY. COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD WEAK MUCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE OVER FAR S TX. HOWEVER...ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE TOO
WEAK THROUGH THE NIGHT TO JUSTIFY A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

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