DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071946
SWODY1
SPC AC 071945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST MON JAN 07 2013

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 01/07/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CST MON JAN 07 2013/

CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY SEWD INTO NWRN MEXICO.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL BRANCH JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO WITH ITS EXIT REGION OVERSPREADING THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
FRONT WHICH HAS DRIFTED WELL S OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE GOM WILL
REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE SHELF WATERS AND DEEP S TX BY 08/12Z.

...SERN AZ INTO CNTRL/SRN TX TONIGHT...

THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SLY LLJ TONIGHT ACROSS SRN INTO CNTRL TX. THIS WILL HASTEN THE
NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS THERMODYNAMIC
STRATIFICATION WILL YIELD A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /I.E. MUCAPE
OF 250-500 J PER KG/ PRIMARILY AFTER 08/06Z. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST.

...SRN FL TODAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.