DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290040
SWODY1
SPC AC 290038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...NW TX/WRN AND CNTRL OK/SE KS/WRN MO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A
WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NWD INTO CNTRL OK...SE KS AND WRN MO TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM NE OK NNEWD ACROSS SE KS INTO WRN MO
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NW TX AND CNTRL
OK...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AS AN 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT IN CNTRL OK GRADUALLY INCREASE
INSTABILITY TONIGHT WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY THE
09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. THE INSTABILITY WILL COMPLIMENT A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 70 KT AS
THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AS CELLS INITIATE
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ORGANIZE BY 12Z AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MODEL.

...NRN MO/ERN IA/WRN IL AND FAR SW WI...
A WELL-DEVELOPED 55 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
ACROSS MO AND IA HELPING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING FROM NRN MO NEWD ACROSS ERN IA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AND SPREAD THIS CONVECTION NEWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS IN ERN IA AT
06 TO 09Z INCREASE MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH THE
INSTABILITY CONCENTRATED ABOVE 850 MB DUE TO A SHARP SFC INVERSION.
FOR THIS REASON...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT A
THREAT FOR HAIL COULD EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS CAN DEVELOP
ROTATION.

..BROYLES.. 01/29/2013

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