ACUS01 KWNS 041243
SWODY1
SPC AC 041241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2013
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD
ABOVE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER TX. ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE COUPLED WITH WEAK MUCAPE VALUES OVER
CNTRL AND S TX WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT COVERAGE.
LATER TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER NM WILL
MOVE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ATOP A STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
OVER S TX. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL YIELD MEAGER CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...ASCENT IS FORECAST
TO BE TOO WEAK FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..GARNER/CARBIN.. 01/04/2013
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