DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060045
SWODY1
SPC AC 060043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2013

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CALIFORNIA...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING WITHIN A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE -30C 500 MB COLD CORE WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS BETWEEN
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND POINT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 08-12Z. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST VERY WEAK CAPE AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS EVEN INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT...GIVEN
THE APPARENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS...PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD
FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 01/06/2013

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