DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061909
SWODY1
SPC AC 061906

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 AND DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE MID 60S F. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500
J/KG MLCAPE IS PRESENT WITH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS HEATING
CONTINUES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ACROSS CNTRL
FL...BUT SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM.

..JEWELL.. 01/06/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0959 AM CST SUN JAN 06 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
07/12Z. UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. ELSEWHERE...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST
WILL PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE D1
PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA.

...FL PENINSULA TODAY...

12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE QUITE POOR WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL
AS THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHERE SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL YIELD A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
MODESTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

...CNTRL/SRN CA COAST TODAY...

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MAY PROMOTE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION
OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.