DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041926
SWODY1
SPC AC 041924

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST FRI JAN 04 2013

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DEEP S TX...
MODELS INDICATE MOISTENING AND SOME LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 850-700
MB MAINLY AFTER 06Z CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE FROM MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH CAPE PRESENT FOR WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THE OVERALL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT INTO WHICH THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

..JEWELL.. 01/04/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2013/

...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WITH
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS....A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WILL BUILD EWD WHILE A WEAK LEE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH SYSTEM
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROMOTE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO STABLE TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL TSTM
AREA.

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