DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090553
SWODY1
SPC AC 090551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LATER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND DIGS
SEWD ACROSS THE W COAST STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THE MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF AN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE --
PROGGED TO LIE JUST S OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNEWD WITH TIME...RESIDING OVER W
CENTRAL TX LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SUBDUED...WITH A WEAK LOW INITIALLY OVER THE S TX VICINITY
PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD -- AND EVENTUALLY NWWD ACROSS NWRN TX. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...TX/LA COASTAL AREAS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS LA/AR INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
VERY MEAGER/MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AS WELL AS THE PERSISTENT ENELY FEED OF COOL LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS EMANATING FROM A SURFACE HIGH CROSSING THE MIDWEST.

GIVEN THIS OVERALL LACK OF APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LIMITED. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL...AND THUS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH LINEARLY-FORCED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
CROSSING THE WRN GULF AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN LA...POTENTIAL FOR A
GUST OR TWO AT OR ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BELOW SLIGHT
RISK THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
SPREADING SLOWLY OUT OF TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 01/09/2013

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