DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121731
SWODY2
SPC AC 121730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN AXIS OF A LARGE POSITIVE-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH WILL
HOWEVER BECOME MORE POSITIVELY-TITLED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SWRN STATES TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING TO SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SHIFTING THE EAST COAST RIDGE
OFFSHORE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM THE
WRN OH VICINITY SWWD TO JUST OFF THE TX COAST WILL ADVANCE EWD WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY THE MORE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EJECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BY THE END OF
THE DAY 2...THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
NRN ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE TRAILING EXTENT INTO CENTRAL VA...WRN
NC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL BUT THE SRN
EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK INSTABILITY RESIDING INVOF THE WRN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS...BUT ATTM MORE APPRECIABLE
THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST EPISODIC POCKETS OF MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MAINLY ELEVATED...EXTENDING NWD INTO THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE
FOR A GENERAL TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO EXISTS
SUNDAY EVENING IN THE OH VALLEY...AGAIN ELEVATED.

..PETERS.. 01/12/2013

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