DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251729
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH SPLIT UPPER FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS...IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
AS IT OPENS/SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND REACHES THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT TSTM
COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTIONS DETAILED BELOW.

...AZ/NM TO WEST TX...
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN
BAJA...12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT GPS DERIVED PW DATA
ARE INDICATIVE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS FROM SOUTHERN CA/LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN AZ. A CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DE-AMPLIFYING/EAST-NORTHEAST
ACCELERATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/NM ON SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK BUOYANCY THROUGH A SUFFICIENT THERMAL
LAYER FOR CHARGE SEPARATION WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A LOW/SPORADIC
COVERAGE OF TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FARTHER EAST INTO THE NM/WEST TX HIGH PLAINS...VARIOUS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CAPPED BY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...EVEN WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING ALONG WITH AN
INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. AS SUCH...TSTM POTENTIAL
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

...COASTAL ORE/FAR NORTHERN CA...
AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...VERY COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT /-30C OR COLDER AT 500
MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. GIVEN THE STEEPNESS OF THE LAPSE
RATES/POSSIBILITY OF CHARGE SEPARATION...SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS/OFFSHORE WATERS.

..GUYER.. 01/25/2013

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