DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250537
SWODY2
SPC AC 250536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU JAN 24 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER
CENTERS OF VORTICITY INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA
WEST OF SRN CA/BAJA WILL EJECT NEWD AND INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. TO THE NORTH OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST
FROM THE PACIFIC. WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL U.S...A COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND WILL ENSURE THAT COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST.

...SOUTHWEST TO UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW WAS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING FROM SERN AZ TO NM ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DEPICT A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACCELERATING FROM NRN MEXICO/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO SRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE...IN CONCERT WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD PROMOTE CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES.

LOW LEVEL LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM
WEST TX TO SCNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN FORECAST WEAKENING OF THE MID/UPPER
IMPULSE AND VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE CHANCES FOR TSTMS IN THIS
REGIME...AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...APPEAR TOO LOW FOR AN OTLK
AREA.

..CARBIN.. 01/25/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.