DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270633
SWODY2
SPC AC 270632

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY BY LATE
MONDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM
BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND NRN
MEXICO. LATEST NAM AND SREF MEAN APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING A QUASI
SPLIT-STREAM CONFIGURATION AND POSITIVE TILT TO THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH...AT LEAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF WITH THE END RESULT BEING A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH COMPARED TO SOME EARLIER
FORECASTS. A LEADING LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE...THE WEAKENING REMNANTS
OF THE IMPULSE NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...WILL TRANSLATE
QUICKLY EAST WITHIN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NRN NEW ENGLAND.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEADING IMPULSE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...AND AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER LARGE SCALE TROUGH...A ZONE
OF STRENGTHENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL S-SWLY WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE EMANATING FROM
THE NWRN GULF AND EAST TX WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH/NEWD ACROSS
THESE AREAS AND CONTRIBUTE TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT MODESTLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM TX TO MO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

...NERN OK TO MIDWEST...
WITH STRONGEST DYNAMIC ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLVING LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE MORE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION/MASS TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF
THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAY INDUCE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE THEN RIPPLES
ENEWD ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT...FROM OK NEWD TO NRN IL. ANY
SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE INHIBITED BY MARGINAL/WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF A MORE DEFINED
FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE NOT LONG AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE UPCOMING DAY 3 OTLK FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013

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