DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050532
SWODY2
SPC AC 050530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST FRI JAN 04 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...

THE PROSPECT FOR DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING WILL
BE HARSHLY LIMITED DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR COASTAL WATERS OFF THE FL PENINSULA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HOWEVER SUGGEST DIURNAL HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CNTRL
PENINSULA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR FEEBLE CONVECTION
ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE COULD APPROACH 300-500
J/KG AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S...THUS WILL MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED TSTMS PRIMARILY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. EVEN SO...GREATER CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OFFSHORE REGIONS WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR UPDRAFTS PENETRATING LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE.

..DARROW.. 01/05/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.