DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...SOUTH TX...

SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO AND
EJECT TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IN FACT IT APPEARS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL NOT SPREAD INTO DEEP SOUTH
TX UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENT THINKING IS MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT TO
MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BUT FAVORABLE SELY TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW
POINTS TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH TX AS COASTAL/WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWD.
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT IN THEIR TIMING OF PACIFIC
COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO SOUTH TX THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR. AFTER 00Z THE SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX BEGINS TO ROTATE TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES EXHIBIT
VERY STRONG SHEAR WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE BUOYANCY AND NEAR-SFC
BASED INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A SQUALL LINE MAY
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
TOWARD THE LOWER TX COAST BY DAYBREAK. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

..DARROW.. 01/07/2013

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