DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081710
SWODY2
SPC AC 081709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS...FAR EAST TX...LA AND FAR SW MS...

...TX COASTAL PLAINS/FAR EAST TX/LA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
TX COASTAL PLAINS IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA SUPPORTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL AND EAST TX EXTENDING EWD INTO LA. A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL
JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ENABLE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY FROM NEAR HOUSTON EWD TO AROUND
LAKE CHARLES GENERALLY SHOW MUCAPE OF 500 TO 750 J/KG WITH ABOUT 50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES OF 350 TO 450 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A CORRIDOR
OF MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET CORE. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HOUSTON AREA. IF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ALONG THIS
FEATURE...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 01/08/2013

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