DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250635
SWODY3
SPC AC 250633

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY THE UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO
FEATURE A LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. A SWATH OF STRONG SWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO MIDWEST. A LOWER AMPLITUDE/SMALLER SCALE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM
THE PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO
UNDERGO DE-AMPLIFICATION. STRONG RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE EAST.

...WEST AND SRN PLAINS TO MIDWEST...
THE PROBABILITY OF TSTMS WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR OTLK AREAS AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED/WEAK TSTMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WITH THE EVOLVING WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WHERE DYNAMIC AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTENING
TO SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.

A MODEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SETUP IS FORECAST TO EXIST
FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE OZARKS TO MO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME PROSPECT FOR CONVECTION IN THIS
REGIME...POSSIBLY FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL IN ADDITION TO TIMING/STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE UPPER
IMPULSE AND GENERALLY VERY WEAK/LIMITED INSTABILITY PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL TSTM FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 01/25/2013

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