DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090803
SWODY3
SPC AC 090801

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CST WED JAN 09 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN TX TO WRN AR...

HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL FORCE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW TO
EJECT INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD. AS STRONG FLOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SFC
PRESSURES WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A
POSITION FROM SRN MO...SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/CNTRL TX BY 12/12Z.
IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING UPPER LOW IT APPEARS MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
DISPLACED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE AND SHOULD ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING ACROSS CNTRL TX SUCH THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST THINKING IS ELEVATED CONVECTION
COULD EMERGE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN TX INTO WRN AR WHERE LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ASCENT. GIVEN THE LATE
ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS AT THIS
TIME.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

A FOCUSED POCKET OF HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY FRIDAY. IF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THIS REGION AS INDICATED BY
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT SATURATION WILL BE NOTED
NEAR 850MB FOR INSTABILITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 01/09/2013

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