DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 031000
SWOD48
SPC AC 030959

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST THU JAN 03 2013

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE
DESERT SW AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD INTO FAR WEST TX ON TUESDAY/DAY
6. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE MODELS MOVE THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS THE EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEVELOPED
MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS TX. IN RESPONSE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS RANGE...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE
DISPARITY OF THE MREF MEMBERS IN SPITE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING IN
REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. IF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH...THEN AN
OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..BROYLES.. 01/03/2013

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