MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0004

ACUS11 KWNS 100019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100018
LAZ000-100215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CST WED JAN 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100018Z - 100215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LA COAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS LA AND ACROSS THE
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...HELPED ALONG BY WEAKLY ADVANCING OUTFLOW.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS ACROSS LA IS RELATIVELY
COOL...A WARM FRONT EXISTS ACROSS SERN LA EXTENDING WWD TO THE LINE
OF STORMS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND GREATER
INSTABILITY. THE MODIFIED 00Z LIX SOUNDING SUGGESTS MLCAPE AROUND
500 J/KG.

CELLS OVER THE WATER HAVE SHOWN ROTATION AT TIMES. AS THESE CELLS
CONTINUE NEWD...THEY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WITH A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADO GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR....ALTHOUGH THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT EFFECTIVE SRH TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2.

..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 01/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30119153 30029251 29859297 29559307 29219276 29189197
28908933 29108891 29908921 30038976 30119032 30109060
30119153

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