MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0022

ACUS11 KWNS 130447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130447
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-130615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA...NRN KY...SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 130447Z - 130615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW ALONG THE
IL/INDIANA BORDER WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SRN IND AND NRN KY ALONG THE
OH RIVER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND MAY PERSIST INTO SWRN OH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THIS
EVOLVING FEATURE...WHERE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING DUE TO
A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG INTO
SRN IND AND SWRN OH. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS VERY STRONG...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO VERY POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES.
HOWEVER...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS AS
THIS LINE PASSES...AND THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR E AS WRN OH.

..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 01/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 37728780 38338740 38978731 39118735 40208451 40178391
40068348 39628345 38988375 37728780

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