MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0036

ACUS11 KWNS 151649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151648
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-152115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 151648Z - 152115Z

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY YIELD ICE
ACCUMULATION RATES OF 0.02-0.10 IN/HR DEVELOPING INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A POSITIVE-TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SUPPORTED A BROAD SWATH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING E/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH MODEST
N/NELY SURFACE WINDS AND ABUNDANT DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVERAGE
RETARDING SURFACE HEATING...MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS LARGELY A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO 16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH
THE OBSERVED FREEZING LINE RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM MLU TO BNA. GIVEN
THE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE SAMPLED IN 12Z BNA/SHV RAOBS ATOP THE
SURFACE BELOW-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN SRN AR AND FAR NRN LA WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN NWRN
MS AND WRN TN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA.

..GRAMS.. 01/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 35768986 36368888 36588811 36678771 36258719 35588780
34378938 33639034 33369092 33869125 34419113 34919089
35768986

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