MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0051

ACUS11 KWNS 271749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271748
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-272145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA...SWRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 271748Z - 272145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE /PERHAPS HIGHER IN CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS/. FREEZING RAIN WILL END OR CHANGE OVER TO
PRIMARILY RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS LEADING TO A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS ERN IA/SRN MN/WRN IL. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN
WI...THE COLUMN HAS CONTINUED TO MOISTEN THROUGH ADVECTIVE AND
EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES. AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO REACH THE
SURFACE...IT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN WITH A
SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE BELOW A PRONOUNCED WARM
NOSE CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. RECENT LIGHTNING OCCURRENCE OVER SERN
IA/NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE PROCESSES MAY AID IN LOCALLY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES.

..JIRAK.. 01/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42349194 43439355 44139336 44279250 44299196 43829100
43198970 42848852 42608803 41978771 41678761 41428751
40668803 40898936 41459085 42349194

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