MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0098

ACUS11 KWNS 301751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301750
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AL...PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WRN
CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18...19...

VALID 301750Z - 301915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
17...18...19...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WATCH 17 LIKELY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF WW 19
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED. WITH
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND 19Z IN
PORTIONS OF WW 18...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES MAY BE CONSOLIDATED
INTO ONE NEW WW.

DISCUSSION......WRN CAROLINAS...
STRONGEST HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
...THROUGH 20-22Z. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE MORE VIGOROUS PORTION OF THE ONGOING
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH COULD STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE SMOKY/BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WIND FIELDS IN EXCESS OF
60 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH
THE SQUALL LINE. IT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO
EXTREME NEAR SURFACE SHEAR.

..KERR.. 01/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
MOB...

LAT...LON 34868106 32798335 31888487 31988627 32378647 33468562
35038406 35728324 36378149 36228024 34868106

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