DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131937
SWODY1
SPC AC 131935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...
RELATIVELY ANEMIC PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS
OF N-CNTRL FL. WITH BOTH SURFACE AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING
THIS WSW/ENE-ORIENTED BAND...AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
LIMITING BUOYANCY /NEAR 9 DEG C AT 700 MB IN ORL/PIE AMDAR
DATA/...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF THE
BAND WILL OCCUR. STILL...THE PROBABILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUST IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG
THE W-CNTRL FL COAST.

..GRAMS.. 02/13/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWWD THROUGH THE FL
BIG BEND INTO THE NERN G.O.M. AS OF 15Z WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA BY 14/12Z.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...

A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS IN PROGRESS AS OF MID MORNING FROM
NEAR JAX SWWD INTO THE NERN G.O.M. /APPROXIMATELY 120 NM S OF AAF/.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND THE
SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. 12Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700 MB IS LIMITING
PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

LOCAL VAD DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...A TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. AND WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE N...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR. A
RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. THEREFORE...THE
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THIS FORECAST.

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