DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141948
SWODY1
SPC AC 141946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 02/14/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST SALIENT FEATURE TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AN ELONGATED VORTICITY RIBBON FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE TX COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
G.O.M. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
FRONT OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

...SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE 12Z MIAMI AND KEY WEST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A
SEASONABLY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF
1.3-1.5 INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 F.
RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ENVIRONMENT WILL UNDERGO MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND THE
PRESENCE OF A DEEP WSWLY WIND FIELD...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND A RESULTANT
RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.