DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151953
SWODY1
SPC AC 151951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 02/15/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE W
COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER SW QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NY THEN SWWD FROM NJ THROUGH THE LWR MS
VALLEY AND INTO S TX. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD
AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SWWD THROUGH NRN FL AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. 12Z BNA SOUNDING AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY /ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 850 AND 600 MB/ THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR ERN
TN AND WRN NC/VA. AS SUCH...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THIS AREA BUT COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER PROBS. THERE IS ALSO
A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW TSTMS IN FAR S FL BUT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED.

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