DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231621
SWODY1
SPC AC 231619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2013

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...NW FL...AND S GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48 THROUGH
SUN. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NW TX SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO ERN
AR/NW MS THIS EVE...AND ENE INTO VA BY 12Z SUN...AS POTENT UPSTREAM
JET STREAK AMPLIFIES SE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.

AT LWR LVLS...DEEP FRONTAL ZONE ATTM EXTENDING ENE FROM THE N CNTRL
GULF OF MEXICO TO FAR ERN NC SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS
APPROACH OF THE TX IMPULSE FOSTERS CONSOLIDATION OF EXISTING SFC
WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO A DEEPENING LOW NEAR HATTERAS.
CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF THE UPR TROUGH SHOULD ALSO ACCELERATE THE
FRONT SEWD TNGT/EARLY SUN...WITH THE BOUNDARY CLEARING THE S
ATLANTIC CST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE
FRONT TO ADVANCE ONLY SLOWLY ESE ACROSS S GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
LONG-TERM RADAR AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
OVERTAKEN SHALLOW SW-NE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDED IT. THE
COMBINED BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SVR TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE REMAINDER OF S GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE TODAY.

...FL PANHANDLE/NW FL INTO S GA THROUGH EVE...
WEAK /30-40 M/ HEIGHT FALLS/UPR DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FL/S GA LATER TODAY/TNGT AS TX
UPR TROUGH APPROACHES REGION. HEIGHT FALLS ALSO MAY BE ENHANCED BY
THE CONTINUED ENE MOVEMENT OF A WEAKER ATTENDANT DISTURBANCE IN THE
SRN STREAM...NOW OVER THE N CNTRL GULF.

SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SUGGEST MODERATE SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
AHEAD OF THE COMBINED COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THAT FEATURE
ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH MODEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...SETUP MAY PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/STRENGTH
OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AND S GA BY MID-LATE AFTN.

MODERATE...DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AROUND 35 KTS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS
AT 500 MB. GIVEN JUXTAPOSED CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY HIGH PW /ABOVE
1.50 INCHES/...ENVIRONMENT MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
INTERMITTENT SMALL-SCALE BOWS AND LEWPS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG
WIND. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
LATER TNGT.

...FAR ERN NC...
MAIN SFC WAVE/LOW APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING JUST NE OF HATTERAS
ATTM. AS THIS FEATURE FURTHER DEEPENS...EXPECT THAT RELATIVELY HIGH
THETA-E AIR ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...THEREBY MINIMIZING
ANY OVERLAND RISK FOR SVR WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 02/23/2013

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