DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031928
SWODY1
SPC AC 031925

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST SUN FEB 03 2013

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE NECESSARY ATTM...WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE U.S. AND LITTLE
APPRECIABLE THUNDER THREAT EVIDENT.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2013/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MODEST LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL U.S.
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF POORLY PHASED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ADVANCING
THROUGH LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET
STREAM...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY.
STRONGER ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE DISPLACED
THE NE OF A ZONE OF VERY MEAGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY OVER CNTRL/ERN OK
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES...WHERE ANYTHING MORE THAN
ACCAS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE UNLIKELY LATE TONIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...EQUILIBRIUM-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION SUPPORTING LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN
THIS AREA. AS SUCH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. ELSEWHERE...STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

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