DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051945
SWODY1
SPC AC 051942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2013

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S TX...
SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S F...WITH PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TOWARDS COASTAL PORTIONS OF S TX. WITH AN
UPPER IMPULSE SITUATED WELL W OF THE AREA /OVER NRN MX AS OF 19Z/...
AND AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY FOCUS FOR ASCENT/LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN A FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG...A
CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED RISK OF HAIL WILL EXIST SHOULD THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS WWD AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE
RISK FOR SVR WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN MODEST MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

..ROGERS/BUNTING.. 02/05/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2013/

...S TX...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS NW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO S TX BY 12Z/WED. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...ONLY A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE THREAT...DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM...WILL EXIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPINGES ON
THE AREA...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AS DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION.

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