DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090047
SWODY1
SPC AC 090044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LONG ISLAND/SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS ONGOING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...AND
DEEPENING OF THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
06Z...AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...LIKELY PASSING JUST TO THE EAST
OF CAPE COD. LIGHTNING SENSORS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND INTO CONNECTICUT/RHODE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT CLEAR FROM SOUNDINGS/MODEL DATA WHETHER PROFILES
TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CONDUCIVE TO UPRIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CAPE AT
MID-LEVELS...BASED AROUND 700 MB...ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY AROUND 03Z. THIS MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BEFORE STRONGER
LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BENEATH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES
TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/PLATEAU REGION WAS RATHER
SPARSE EVEN AT ITS PEAK EARLIER TODAY. AND THERE IS LITTLE TO
SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY
STILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS THE
BEST CHANCE NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...PROBABILITIES
GENERALLY APPEAR AT OR BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
DESPITE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
LATE TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...
DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...DUE TO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.

..KERR.. 02/09/2013

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