DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150046
SWODY1
SPC AC 150044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FAR SRN FL...
EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE WAVE HAS RECENTLY
MOVED E OFFSHORE FROM SRN FL...WITH A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM MIA WSWWD TO 55 N OF MTH AT 00Z. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SWD...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S...PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.8 IN./ ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG
BASED ON THE 00Z MFL RAOB. DEEP-LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION...LATEST REGIONAL AND HI-RES RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUS...A LOW-END THREAT FOR A
DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE SURFACE AIRMASS FURTHER STABILIZES.

...CNTRL/ERN OH...WRN PA...
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE SHIFTING FROM CNTRL/ERN
OH INTO WRN PA/NY...COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MUCAPE VALUES /AROUND 100-150 J PER KG PER 00Z
ILN RAOB/ WILL AID IN A VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
THROUGH 06Z. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL BELOW 10
PERCENT...THUS A CATEGORICAL THUNDER LINE HAS NOT BEEN INTRODUCED.

..GARNER.. 02/15/2013

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