DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081931
SWODY1
SPC AC 081929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL...
HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN FL WHERE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WERE DEEPENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS DECREASING WITH NWLY WINDS...A STORM OR TWO MAY
FORM OUT OF THE CLUSTER. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED A VERY SMALL
THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS BROWARD AND NRN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

..JEWELL.. 02/08/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST FRI FEB 08 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PHASE WITH A
POLAR BRANCH IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...FORMING
AN INTENSE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OFF THE CA
COAST WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH NRN BAJA INTO THE SWRN DESERTS...
SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION AND SEWD PROGRESSION OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.

...GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO VALLEY INTO CNTRL ROCKIES...

DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH HAVE FOSTERED WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN NV
INTO WRN UT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
/I.E. PW VALUES GENERALLY AOB 0.3 INCH/...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD AN INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

...CNTRL/SRN CA COAST...

COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COINCIDENT WITH THE SWRN U.S. TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

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