MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0126

ACUS11 KWNS 090138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090137
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-090730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CO / RI / MA / SRN VT / MUCH OF NH / SRN-ERN MAINE

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 090137Z - 090730Z

SUMMARY...A NOR'EASTER RESULTING IN A BLIZZARD WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND FEATURE SNOWFALL RATES 1-4 INCHES PER
HOUR...WIND GUSTS 35-65 MPH...AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MI.

DISCUSSION...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /ESTIMATED AROUND 983
MB/ 165 MI SSE BID WILL CONTINUE NNEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS OCCURRING DUE TO VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE
REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH PHASING MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS AND
COUPLING UPPER SPEED MAXIMA ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. 01Z SURFACE
STATIONS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE COAST HAVE BEEN OBSERVING
FREQUENT GUSTS 50-65 MPH AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONCURRENTLY EXPAND NWD
AND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING BOTH SREF AND SPC SSEO /CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLE/ INDICATE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
PIVOT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ALIGN FROM ERN MA NWD ALONG THE
MAINE COAST BY THE 08-09Z PERIOD. SPORADIC LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND HAS
COINCIDED WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES. CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN THE
HEAVIEST BANDING OF SNOW WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL ISOLD THUNDERSNOW INVOF
THE COAST.

..SMITH.. 02/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 40927349 42207382 43517280 45546854 44766706 43357019
41667008 40927349

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