MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0151

ACUS11 KWNS 111901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111901 COR
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-112030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST TX...LA...SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111901Z - 112030Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT BOX INFORMATION

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WW
ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS CNTRL LA WHERE A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A STRONG SFC INVERSION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
MCD AREA ACCORDING TO THE MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCAPE VALUES IN CNTRL LA AND SW MS COULD BE IN THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AS IS SUGGESTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED
WITH 70 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE FORT POLK LA WSR-88D VWP
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 700 MB...A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 02/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31069415 30679446 30179426 30189332 30549037 30848944
31388938 31629026 31269309 31069415

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