MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0164

ACUS11 KWNS 141838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141838
FLZ000-141945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141838Z - 141945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. A WW
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE THREAT...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN FL HAS LIFTED N DURING THE
DAY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KFMY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES...MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL EXIST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WSW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45 KTS. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY FORMING INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES OF
NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS OF
STRONGEST HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT IS SUCH
THAT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 02/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 26758227 26988220 27068166 27348073 27308027 26677994
25828007 25258043 25168110 25898172 26758227

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